Read about the 1.5 Million Population Gap between the actual palestinian population (approximately 2.4 million) and the fictional palestinian population (approximately 3.8 million) publicized by the Palestinian Authority (and used by left-wingers in Israel to scare everyone into thinking that in 10 years there will be more Arabs in Israel than Jews).

From PADemographics.com:

The claim that Jews will become a minority in the region are incorrect. Since 1967, Jews have maintained their 60% majority in Israel, West Bank and Gaza and since 1990, the Jewish population has grown by 2.5% a year, only a slight fraction below the growth rate in the West Bank. The declines in Palestinian Arab growth rates and the vitality of Jewish growth rates which are the highest among Western democracies, will preserve this ratio.

So how could they be off by almost 1.5 million (and counting)?

The million-and-a-half person gap occurred because the PA numbers are based on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) 1997 projections, not on actual population counts. The PBS used the PA’s official 1997 census as a base population and assumed the population would grow at 4 to 5% a year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. PA Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, confirm that the PBS expectations were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004. There were dramatically fewer births and lower fertility rates, and instead of immigration, the West Bank and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration. When the PBS incorrect assumptions are applied over many years, the error in population forecast compounds exponentially.

• Fewer births: PA Ministry of Health birth reports were substantially lower than the number predicted by the PBS.
• Lower Fertility Rates: Palestinian fertility rates declined from the mid-90’s through 2003, according to PA Ministry of Health, consistent with the trend occurring in other Middle Eastern Arab societies.
• Net Emigration: Instead of the large immigration originally projected by the PA, the West BAnk and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration averaging 10,000 a year.
• Double Counting: 210,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are already counted in Israel’s population survey were included in the PA survey.
• Inclusion of non-residents: Palestinians with IDs living abroad for over one year were included in the PA Census & Projection.
• Internal migration: 150,000 PA Arabs who have legally relocated to Israel since 1993 are still counted by the PA.
• Retrospective Alterations of Recorded Birth data.

See the actual study for all of the relevant information at PA Demographics. (See also this article as well). Thanks to Pinchas for posting the link first.

In retrospect, the fact that the demographic statistics that everyone has been citing for years regarding the demographic threat to Israel’s existence are really based on the fantasies of the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics comes as no surprise. Whether this will change anyone’s perceptions of what is really required to attain peace is yet to be seen.